Article by Hank Butler, PACA Lobbyist
Now that the political party conventions have ended, students are going back to school, and football season is upon us, it is time to monitor and examine the political climate moving into the General Election on Tuesday, November 5th.
This is an important election for Pennsylvania with elections for:
- United States President
- United States Senator representing Pennsylvania
- United States members of Congress
- Half of the members of the Pennsylvania Senate
- Members of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Looking at Pennsylvania, there is only one House seat that separates the current majority and minority parties (102 Democrats/ 101 Republicans). As voters choose the party ticket, a change in one seat can transform the direction of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and legislation they choose to consider.
One poll does not show the political climate of the state, but if you look at numerous polls of Pennsylvania voters (below), one can see a trend. This trend shows how close the Presidential race is in the Commonwealth currently.
Pollster: RCP Average
Date: 7/22 - 8/19
Trump (R) - 47.7
Harris (D) - 47.5
Spread: Trump +0.2
Pollster: InsiderAdvantage
Date: 8/18 - 8/19
Trump (R) - 47
Harris (D) - 46
Spread: Trump +1
Pollster: Rasmussen Report
Date: 8/13 - 8/17
Trump (R) - 47
Harris (D) - 46
Spread: Trump +1
Pollster: Emerson
Date: 8/13 - 8/14
Trump (R) - 49
Harris (D) - 48
Spread: Trump +1
Pollster: Quinnipiac
Date: 8/8 - 8/12
Trump (R) - 47
Harris (D) - 50
Spread: Harris +3
Pollster: NY Times/Siena
Date: 8/6 - 8/9
Trump (R) - 46
Harris (D) - 50
Spread: Harris +4
Pollster: Trafalgar Group (R)
Date: 8/6 - 8/8
Trump (R) - 46
Harris (D) - 44
Spread: Trump +2
Pollster: PPP (D)
Date: 7/29 - 7/30
Trump (R) - 48
Harris (D) - 47
Spread: Trump +1
Pollster: Cook Political Report
Date: 7/26 - 8/2
Trump (R) - 48
Harris (D) - 49
Spread: Harris +1
Pollster: Bloomberg / MrnConsult
Date: 7/24 -7/28
Trump (R) - 50
Harris (D) - 46
Spread: Trump +4
Pollster: Fox News
Date: 7/22 - 7/24
Trump (R) - 49
Harris (D) - 49
Spread: Tie
As we move closer to November 5th, PACA will be monitoring these upcoming polls and look at the important races at the federal and state levels of government.
If you have any questions, email or call Hank Butler at 717.330.4574.